Gold (CMX): (High: Jan//Low: Jul or Sep) Demand is usually weakest in Northern Hemisphere summer, especially August when European jewelry manufacturers are essentially shut down. Demand is greatest going into fourth quarter, during which consumption is highest as gift-giving peaks beginning with Indian harvest and wedding festivals in autumn and carrying through US religious holidays and Chinese new year.
Gold Spot:
| Energy Seasonals | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal Strategy |
Entry Date |
Exit Date |
Win Pct |
Win Years |
Loss Years |
Total Years |
Average Profit |
|
| 1 | Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-July | 3/01 | 5/09 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 2059 |
| 2 | Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June | 3/20 | 5/14 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 1885 |
| 3 | Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June | 4/08 | 5/09 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 1456 |
| 4 | Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June | 4/12 | 4/29 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 1095 |
| 5 | Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-June | 2/25 | 4/15 | 100 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 2862 |
| 6 | Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-July | 2/25 | 4/21 | 92 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 3108 |
| 7 | Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-May | 3/14 | 4/21 | 92 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 2638 |
Crude Oil (NYM): (High: Oct//Low: Dec) Twin peaks in demand built on pillar of primary product demand. Weakness into Feb due to reduced demand for heating oil. Strength into Mar-May as inventories of gasoline built prior to US driving/vacation consumption. Lowest consumption of heating oil Jun-Aug, but demand for inventory grows prior to winter. Decline into Dec as refiners sharply curtail purchases to avoid year-end inventory tax.
WTI Global Spot:
Possible trade: Seasonal rise in crude oil, starting on July 24 and ending on September 18. The increase was observed in 17 of 24 years, resulting in an average profit of +12.6%. But there were also 7 years, where the price of crude oil fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -5.4%. The overall rise during all 24 years was +7.1% p.a..
| Crude Oil(NYM)-August | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy on approximately 03/20 – Exit on approximately 05/17 | Contract Size: 1,000 barrels | |||||||||
| Cont Year |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Exit Date |
Exit Price |
Profit | Profit Amount |
Best Equity Date |
Best Equity Amount |
Worst Equity Date |
Worst Equity Amount |
| 2006 | 03/20/06 | 64.20 | 05/17/06 | 70.33 | 6.13 | 6130.00 | 05/02/06 | 12520.00 | ||
| 2005 | 03/21/05 | 58.55 | 05/17/05 | 51.21 | -7.34 | -7340.00 | 04/04/05 | 570.00 | 05/16/05 | -7730.00 |
| 2004 | 03/22/04 | 35.01 | 05/17/04 | 40.97 | 5.96 | 5960.00 | 05/17/04 | 5960.00 | 04/01/04 | -2160.00 |
| 2003 | 03/20/03 | 26.51 | 05/16/03 | 28.10 | 1.59 | 1590.00 | 05/14/03 | 1670.00 | 04/29/03 | -1500.00 |
| 2002 | 03/20/02 | 24.90 | 05/17/02 | 27.00 | 2.10 | 2100.00 | 05/14/02 | 3120.00 | 04/12/02 | -1500.00 |
| 2001 | 03/20/01 | 26.19 | 05/17/01 | 29.24 | 3.05 | 3050.00 | 05/01/01 | 3170.00 | 04/02/01 | -360.00 |
| 2000 | 03/20/00 | 25.67 | 05/17/00 | 28.96 | 3.29 | 3290.00 | 05/16/00 | 3410.00 | 04/10/00 | -2750.00 |
| 1999 | 03/22/99 | 15.59 | 05/17/99 | 17.76 | 2.17 | 2170.00 | 05/05/99 | 2780.00 | 03/24/99 | -270.00 |
| 1998 | 03/20/98 | 15.61 | 05/15/98 | 15.82 | 0.21 | 210.00 | 03/26/98 | 1860.00 | ||
| 1997 | 03/20/97 | 21.31 | 05/16/97 | 22.02 | 0.71 | 710.00 | 05/16/97 | 710.00 | 04/04/97 | -1960.00 |
| 1996 | 03/20/96 | 18.39 | 05/17/96 | 18.84 | 0.45 | 450.00 | 04/29/96 | 1600.00 | ||
| 1995 | 03/20/95 | 18.20 | 05/17/95 | 19.60 | 1.40 | 1400.00 | 05/01/95 | 1620.00 | 03/21/95 | -40.00 |
| 1994 | 03/21/94 | 15.40 | 05/17/94 | 17.06 | 1.66 | 1660.00 | 05/12/94 | 2030.00 | 03/28/94 | -940.00 |
| 1993 | 03/22/93 | 19.98 | 05/17/93 | 20.02 | 0.04 | 40.00 | 04/02/93 | 920.00 | 05/14/93 | -10.00 |
| 1992 | 03/20/92 | 19.19 | 05/15/92 | 20.91 | 1.72 | 1720.00 | 05/11/92 | 1940.00 | ||
| Percentage Correct | 93 | |||||||||
| Average Profit on Winning Trades | 2.18 | 2177.14 | Winners | 14 | ||||||
| Average Loss on Trades | -7.34 | -7340.00 | Losers | 1 | ||||||
| Average Net Profit Per Trade | 1.54 | 1542.67 | Total trades | 15 | ||||||
30-Year T-Bonds (CBOT): (High: Nov-Dec//Low: Apr-May) Prices decline (and interest rates firm) during first quarter, perhaps as market anticipates tightening liquidity with massive shift of financial resources from private to public sector in form of tax payments. By FND for June contract, FED may begin recirculating funds, fueling rally through remainder of tax year. Taxes due Apr 15; US fiscal year begins October 1.
Nikkei 225 (SIMEX): (High: Jun//Low: Jan or Nov) This pattern evolved from both major bull and major bear markets. Japanese fiscal year begins April 1.
Standard & Poor’s 500 (CME): (High: Dec//Low: Jan) This pattern evolved as the effect of a long-term, mostly steady bull market in which prices are usually higher at the end of the year than at the beginning. Weakness from mid-March into Apr associated with shift of financial resources from private into public sector in the form of tax payments.
As of 14 September 2016:
Typically, the US stock market has done well in years ending in ‘5’ (like 1975, 1985 or 1995). The stock market seems to follow a 10-year cycle. The chart above depicts the average 10-year course of the Dow Jones over approx. 100 years (i.e. the yellow part shows the average course of the years ending in ‘5’).
The years ending in ‘5’ have done extremely well in the 20th century. They produced an average gain of 34.61 %. This is the half of the entire average decennial gain! There was no losing year.
The following chart shows the performance of all years ending in ‘5’, not only for the 20th century, but also for the 19th century. It should be observed that there was no such phenomenon during the first eight decades in the 19th century. However, we may say that this is long ago.
