Tag: pound

Ultra long-term British Pound chart

Data sources: Global Financial Data, Bloomberg

Data is available from 1660 but due to the spike in the exchange rate up to 5000 between 1776-1781 it has been excluded in order to show a better scaled chart.

Analysis by PolarPacific (July 2004):
 Long term chart of GBP vs USD

Some levels of interest

2.00: last peak (prior to EMS crisis)
2.20: current value of logscale trendline joining major tops in 1864 and 1934
2.40: geometric average between 20th century monthly closing High at 5.28 and monthly closing Low at 1.09.
2.80: peak during post-WWII stability and neckline of inverted H&S formation

Allowing for the Bretton Woods regime, during the 50-year span from 1951-2001 there were altogether 7 major Lows — all spaced virtually 100 months apart. These 7 actual Lows plus the next 2 projected ones in OCT2009 and FEB2018 are indicated by the red boxes.

Intra-daily Statistical Range Distributions (1997 – 2000)

Period closing GMT 4-hourly hourly Period closing GMT
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
All 921 106 79 64 50 38 32 25 537 53 40 32 24 18 15 11 All
0000 285 65 52 42 34 27 22 17 182 38 30 24 18 12 8 5 0000
0100 325 90 67 54 42 32 27 21 237 62 47 37 27 20 15 10 0100
0200 403 106 78 63 48 37 30 24 286 63 43 35 26 20 16 13 0200
0300 518 120 87 67 53 40 32 25 308 56 40 31 24 19 15 11 0300
0400 588 120 88 68 52 40 32 26 290 40 30 25 19 13 11 9 0400
0500 576 104 77 61 45 35 29 23 138 45 34 27 20 15 11 8 0500
0600 378 98 74 58 44 33 27 21 208 46 37 28 21 16 12 9 0600
0700 525 96 73 58 45 34 27 21 280 55 42 34 25 19 14 10 0700
0800 525 102 77 62 48 38 31 24 220 60 45 36 28 22 18 14 0800
0900 480 114 81 65 50 40 33 27 308 63 47 38 30 23 20 16 0900
1000 489 118 86 69 54 43 36 29 412 57 43 35 29 23 20 15 1000
1100 780 118 87 71 56 44 37 31 410 55 42 35 28 22 18 15 1100
1200 921 111 85 68 56 44 38 31 254 51 41 34 28 22 18 15 1200
1300 570 103 82 67 54 44 38 31 358 55 42 36 28 23 18 14 1300
1400 728 104 81 68 55 46 39 31 537 60 48 39 31 25 20 16 1400
1500 696 106 86 72 58 46 40 32 355 60 48 39 31 25 20 15 1500
1600 808 119 95 76 61 49 40 34 210 66 51 42 32 26 21 17 1600
1700 859 125 98 79 61 48 41 34 212 60 47 39 29 23 19 14 1700
1800 569 120 92 75 58 46 39 32 201 54 39 32 25 20 16 13 1800
1900 325 109 85 69 53 42 35 29 180 45 35 28 22 17 14 11 1900
2000 535 99 75 61 48 38 32 25 377 40 31 25 20 15 13 10 2000
2100 525 82 65 52 41 33 27 22 161 35 26 22 17 13 11 9 2100
2200 417 73 57 47 37 29 24 19 102 30 24 20 15 12 9 7 2200
2300 377 62 50 42 33 27 22 19 132 30 23 19 15 11 8 6 2300
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
GBP/USD
Period closing GMT 4-hourly hourly Period closing GMT
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
All 542 92 73 60 47 35 28 22 210 48 39 31 24 17 13 9 All
0000 542 55 43 37 30 25 21 16 47 23 17 14 10 7 5 4 0000
0100 542 56 45 37 30 23 20 17 115 30 23 19 14 11 8 6 0100
0200 542 57 44 37 30 24 20 17 89 29 23 19 15 12 9 7 0200
0300 200 55 43 36 29 24 20 17 180 28 22 18 14 11 9 7 0300
0400 200 53 42 36 28 23 20 16 72 22 17 14 11 9 7 5 0400
0500 183 51 41 34 27 22 19 15 105 26 20 16 12 9 7 5 0500
0600 180 51 40 34 27 22 18 15 108 28 21 17 13 10 7 5 0600
0700 213 54 44 37 30 24 21 17 75 38 31 26 20 15 11 7 0700
0800 239 68 57 48 39 32 27 22 145 51 43 36 30 23 19 14 0800
0900 150 85 70 60 48 40 34 28 142 57 46 39 32 26 22 18 0900
1000 256 98 80 70 57 47 41 34 190 60 48 41 33 27 23 20 1000
1100 379 105 88 74 62 51 45 39 149 57 46 40 32 27 24 20 1100
1200 355 106 89 76 63 53 45 39 183 51 43 37 31 26 22 19 1200
1300 333 107 90 76 62 52 46 39 210 56 45 39 32 26 23 19 1300
1400 312 106 89 75 62 53 46 39 146 60 47 41 34 29 24 20 1400
1500 288 106 88 76 63 53 46 39 199 59 48 41 34 28 24 20 1500
1600 295 110 93 80 66 55 48 41 148 62 52 44 36 30 25 22 1600
1700 272 112 95 83 69 57 49 42 184 62 51 44 36 29 25 21 1700
1800 249 114 95 82 67 55 48 42 167 55 44 37 31 25 21 17 1800
1900 284 109 90 76 62 52 45 39 172 47 39 32 26 21 17 14 1900
2000 283 97 78 67 57 47 41 35 154 42 35 29 23 18 15 12 2000
2100 283 82 66 57 48 39 34 29 190 34 29 24 20 15 12 10 2100
2200 279 68 58 50 41 34 29 24 121 30 25 21 17 13 10 7 2200
2300 281 59 50 43 36 29 25 20 160 25 20 17 13 9 7 5 2300
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
EUR/USD
Period closing GMT 4-hourly hourly Period closing GMT
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
All 408 76 59 48 37 28 23 18 325 39 30 25 19 14 11 8 All
0000 103 41 33 28 23 19 17 14 60 20 17 14 11 8 6 5 0000
0100 113 42 35 28 23 20 17 14 76 29 23 19 16 13 10 7 0100
0200 105 44 35 29 24 21 18 15 82 24 19 16 13 11 10 7 0200
0300 126 43 35 30 25 21 18 16 47 21 17 15 12 10 9 7 0300
0400 340 43 35 30 24 21 18 15 294 18 15 13 11 9 7 5 0400
0500 330 38 30 26 21 19 16 14 84 21 17 15 12 8 7 5 0500
0600 315 38 31 27 23 19 16 12 73 26 22 19 15 11 8 6 0600
0700 294 48 40 34 28 23 18 15 65 37 31 26 22 17 13 9 0700
0800 154 62 52 45 37 30 27 22 121 45 37 31 26 22 19 16 0800
0900 229 77 64 54 44 36 32 27 225 49 38 31 26 21 18 16 0900
1000 229 85 70 59 49 40 35 30 122 41 34 28 22 19 16 14 1000
1100 229 91 74 62 49 40 35 30 165 40 31 26 22 18 15 13 1100
1200 225 86 70 58 47 38 33 28 119 40 32 27 22 18 16 13 1200
1300 408 82 66 55 46 37 32 27 325 46 36 29 23 19 16 13 1300
1400 399 86 69 61 49 40 34 29 118 51 41 34 27 23 20 17 1400
1500 399 86 72 63 53 44 37 31 129 48 40 35 28 24 21 18 1500
1600 325 98 81 69 56 45 41 35 122 56 44 37 31 26 23 20 1600
1700 206 105 88 73 58 46 41 35 141 47 38 33 26 21 19 16 1700
1800 262 97 82 67 56 45 39 33 148 40 33 28 23 18 16 13 1800
1900 262 91 74 62 50 41 36 29 135 35 28 24 19 15 13 11 1900
2000 262 75 61 53 44 35 31 26 81 31 26 22 18 14 12 10 2000
2100 199 62 53 45 36 30 25 21 63 25 21 18 15 12 10 8 2100
2200 197 55 45 38 31 26 21 18 48 22 18 15 12 10 8 6 2200
2300 94 48 39 33 27 22 20 17 76 19 16 13 10 8 6 5 2300
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
USD/CHF
Period closing GMT 4-hourly hourly Period closing GMT
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%
All 651 114 90 73 55 41 34 26 484 58 44 36 27 20 15 10 All
0000 282 63 52 43 34 27 24 20 103 30 23 19 14 10 6 3 0000
0100 198 65 51 42 35 28 23 20 133 38 30 25 19 14 10 7 0100
0200 198 65 52 44 35 29 25 20 154 35 28 24 18 14 11 8 0200
0300 171 67 53 45 36 30 25 21 121 32 26 22 17 14 10 8 0300
0400 492 67 53 44 36 30 25 20 423 29 22 19 14 10 8 5 0400
0500 475 64 50 42 33 27 23 20 169 30 23 20 15 11 8 5 0500
0600 446 65 50 41 33 27 23 20 125 37 30 24 18 13 10 6 0600
0700 423 70 57 47 38 31 25 21 108 51 41 33 26 20 15 10 0700
0800 299 90 71 62 50 41 34 27 194 65 52 44 36 29 24 17 0800
0900 306 112 92 74 60 50 42 34 247 71 55 46 37 30 26 22 0900
1000 306 125 102 86 68 57 50 40 219 65 50 44 35 29 26 22 1000
1100 338 130 106 89 72 60 52 43 338 59 46 40 33 27 25 20 1100
1200 338 129 103 86 70 57 49 42 176 57 46 40 32 26 23 19 1200
1300 651 119 97 83 66 54 47 41 484 62 50 40 33 27 23 20 1300
1400 642 125 101 86 69 57 50 42 213 74 59 49 40 32 27 22 1400
1500 633 132 106 90 74 61 53 44 192 73 62 51 42 34 29 24 1500
1600 484 144 117 100 82 67 57 46 209 84 66 55 45 37 32 27 1600
1700 427 158 128 105 85 71 60 51 225 75 60 50 40 33 30 25 1700
1800 506 153 124 103 84 70 60 50 235 66 52 42 34 28 23 20 1800
1900 497 144 117 97 79 64 54 45 208 54 42 35 29 23 19 16 1900
2000 421 123 99 85 69 55 47 39 129 48 40 32 25 20 17 13 2000
2100 337 106 83 71 58 45 39 32 141 39 31 26 19 15 13 10 2100
2200 307 86 69 58 47 38 31 25 75 32 25 20 16 12 10 6 2200
2300 282 78 61 51 40 31 27 23 105 29 21 18 13 10 7 5 2300
max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90% max 10% 20% 32% median 68% 80% 90%

*Analysis provided by Marshall Kerr

British Pound Seasonal Pattern

British Pound (IMM): (High: Nov-Jan//Low: Feb-Mar or Sep) UK fiscal year begins Apr 1. Currency has tended to be weakest at end of fiscal year (Feb-Mar) and at mid-point (Sep), strongest in first month of each calendar quarter.

GBP/USD Seasonal

Against the USD, the Pound has two months in which it has shown a notable directional tendency. They are September and December, as can be seen below. In the case of the former, GBP/USD has risen six of the last seven years, averaging an increase of over 230 pips for the month in that span. Actually, 2005 broke a string of twelve consecutive September gains in the pair.


Source: Anduril Analytics

Monthly Ranges

MONTHLY
RANGE
PIPS		 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 174 134 304 431 332 244 273 348 279 309 324 348 231
Max 561 704 695 1011 1560 869 540 589 894 764 761 929 832
Ave 292 330 409 612 652 480 418 416 517 434 577 599 484
$/CHF Min 250 280 399 336 408 276 263 384 347 394 445 476 651
Max 694 1474 976 1100 1881 750 762 760 804 1147 1175 1454 1284
Ave 415 666 577 557 723 402 470 540 572 716 713 844 930
EUR/$ Min 381 432 526 402 509 267 246 333 401 277 241 265 318
Max 947 1103 1314 1285 2170 727 610 696 679 977 692 632 746
Ave 568 746 777 746 917 425 405 485 526 599 401 449 560
GBP/$ Min 348 312 397 614 446 349 392 516 456 553 239 365 323
Max 886 932 1087 1867 2604 922 1021 976 1026 1154 851 652 1006
Ave 504 634 693 1017 1045 604 642 702 745 726 491 514 597
$/CAD Min 196 225 284 378 296 229 267 307 328 350 270 274 240
Max 543 769 748 1053 2468 954 616 562 760 887 857 536 595
Ave 292 427 455 732 765 471 362 413 548 578 446 377 371
AUD/$ Min 248 256 253 322 340 189 148 209 304 264 132 180 186
Max 756 1365 1208 922 2012 988 493 347 569 527 369 471 460
Ave 450 718 616 628 736 464 301 290 431 337 220 314 329
NZD/$ Min 298 298 318 298 309 209 232 211 276 176 92 115 170
Max 984 984 760 984 1426 1073 698 503 605 412 401 420 477
Ave 570 570 467 570 609 480 356 340 408 289 230 246 283
$/ZAR Min 3417 2656 2631 4987 3403 3040 2762 2558 3657 3800 4400 1756 1575
Max 8931 15237 7470 13928 36435 69005 9949 9275 13601 11811 15113 35550 5475
Ave 5051 6259 4508 8453 10194 11726 5242 4613 6558 7483 8727 7029 3342
GOLD Min 72.0 67.5 60.5 42.0 78.6 34.1 38.2 15.45 21.25 20.75 9.25 7.2 7.8
($/oz) Max 162.9 388.6 97.4 148.1 251.1 76.3 102.0 51.9 52.9 47.5 38 34.25 37
Ave 105.9 165.1 79.4 93.6 127.6 52.0 62.1 28.1 30 29 20 16 15
SILVER Min 2.00 4.60 1.28 1.32 1.64 0.92 0.87 0.10 0.51 0.20 0.21 0.13
($/oz) Max 5.79 16.70 5.41 3.22 5.28 2.42 3.21 7.64 2.87 0.68 0.65 0.54
Ave 4.13 8.32 2.51 2.33 3.09 1.57 2.20 121.21 1.08 0.41 0.38 0.32

*30 September 2012

Weekly Ranges

WEEKLY
RANGE
PIPS		 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 41 56 103 107 110 99 100 110 82 92 100 144 111
Max 221 618 695 594 1247 697 386 548 469 433 721 519 516
Ave 130 155 206 284 332 237 217 202 231 214 266 277 227
$/CHF Min 96 122 131 131 171 91 128 142 162 152 159 180 226
Max 320 1045 498 747 1340 369 486 525 563 535 596 716 875
Ave 185 279 256 287 341 190 244 268 306 326 328 407 466
EUR/$ Min 130 158 146 179 177 92 105 113 112 124 99 118 139
Max 421 649 850 806 1360 358 386 557 548 435 334 431 585
Ave 258 360 355 345 436 196 212 241 273 257 188 230 275
GBP/$ Min 107 181 185 275 171 129 184 175 206 154 104 153 144
Max 448 455 841 1403 2249 605 543 651 710 525 501 446 840
Ave 232 309 344 495 512 295 325 316 410 295 228 265 311
$/CAD Min 67 83 125 175 122 96 98 113 135 134 88 84 99
Max 239 557 637 791 1304 452 339 401 447 510 563 320 377
Ave 149 214 240 337 357 201 187 225 259 280 198 190 184
AUD/$ Min 113 126 139 130 124 72 78 88 100 64 46 74 62
Max 375 701 792 554 1407 831 239 289 406 358 226 349 371
Ave 223 323 277 297 350 206 140 154 220 148 106 155 159
NZD/$ Min 95 133 81 112 102 82 85 93 99 70 52 39 50
Max 321 571 452 611 823 828 312 325 509 258 251 219 342
Ave 187 265 217 270 285 216 167 171 211 136 106 120 133
$/ZAR Min 1411 1140 1054 1624 1110 1400 983 932 1301 1419 1900 795 620
Max 4290 10893 6212 8155 20473 72234 6849 5495 9775 9600 13600 20300 3100
Ave 2588 3026 2293 4028 4993 6268 2635 2357 2946 3547 4098 2981 1539
GOLD Min 23.9 24.2 20.3 12.7 22.9 12.2 12.5 4.2 1.7 5.2 3.2 2.1 2.0
($/oz) Max 103.5 201.1 81.5 84.9 147.5 57.6 69.5 48.0 26.4 24.9 24.0 22.9 24
Ave 55.3 67.1 41.9 40.1 58.4 25.2 29.8 12.8 13 13 9 8 8
SILVER** Min 0.77 1.44 0.57 0.50 0.57 0.35 0.10 0.10 0.17 0.08 0.08 0.03
($/oz) Max 3.37 15.47 3.56 1.96 4.48 2.01 2.82 7.31 1.40 0.47 0.46 0.42
Ave 1.77 3.40 1.34 1.05 1.50 0.74 0.97 0.44 0.50 0.20 0.18 0.15

*30 September 2012

Daily Ranges

DAILY RANGE PIPS 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 18 19 27 34 26 22 32 29 16 27 33 54 28
Max 150 396 595 315 714 473 238 353 281 245 454 355 407
Ave 58 69 88 122 146 100 96 94 106 99 120 120 105
$/CHF Min 37 31 46 44 43 20 26 48 36 57 56 52 62
Max 208 789 259 448 523 205 270 271 328 348 377 542 528
Ave 85 118 114 135 148 85 107 123 143 152 147 185 198
EUR/$ Min 46 43 52 57 51 18 28 36 37 22 28 34 36
Max 274 391 346 512 538 244 222 247 274 263 239 298 454
Ave 115 157 148 166 182 84 95 110 124 115 87 104 117
GBP/$ Min 38 56 57 53 39 27 30 49 52 48 37 50 49
Max 257 264 457 566 1058 362 381 369 436 335 265 285 438
Ave 103 139 158 218 217 129 139 147 177 134 104 120 132
$/CAD Min 23 26 32 42 6 26 34 34 41 42 37 28 31
Max 175 310 456 387 740 255 195 271 274 305 372 208 192
Ave 70 96 111 159 143 90 88 105 122 126 93 84 81
AUD/$ Min 41 35 32 50 36 19 22 30 31 19 20 26 25
Max 240 451 378 331 735 381 155 167 293 232 199 178 327
Ave 99 137 122 141 157 90 65 72 93 67 50 67 71
NZD/$ Min 35 37 30 14 30 20 25 36 28 8 5 15 13
Max 194 401 263 285 523 366 178 187 231 157 157 137 210
Ave 85 111 96 114 122 91 76 78 90 63 49 54 60
$/ZAR Min 352 176 468 635 396 499 432 412 100 200 200 175 180
Max 3111 5690 4013 4658 16703 2653 3499 2695 4000 5200 7337 17900 2025
Ave 1175 1311 1093 1881 2209 1236 1328 1154 1445 1639 1927 1244 658
GOLD Min 0.20 0.10 3.60 0.10 5.00 1.5 2.8 1 0 0.1 0.8 0 0
($/oz) Max 103.5 116.9 49.3 68.0 105.2 39.2 42.9 15.9 17.6 19.6 11.0 16.9 19.0
Ave 23.3 26.5 18.1 17.8 23.9 10.7 12.6 5 6 6 4 3 3
SILVER Min 0.28 0.21 0.08 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
($/oz) Max 3.37 5.11 2.62 1.11 2.69 1.42 2.44 0.43 0.79 0.30 0.24 0.27
Ave 0.85 1.36 0.54 0.46 0.62 0.31 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.09 0.08 0.07

*30 September 2012