Tag: yen

Japanese Yen Seasonal Pattern

Japanese Yen (IMM): (High: Oct or Dec//Low: Jan-Mar) Japan’s fiscal year begins Apr 1, with mid-year Oct 1 also important to balance sheets.

Japanese Yen Seasonal

The prime example is August, the month in which the market has been down every year since 1999. During that time, USD/JPY fell for the month at least 137 pips each time around, with most of the declines coming in at better than 200 pips. The average has been 320 pips, which translates to a move of 2.80%.

In the case of EUR/JPY, as one might expect, August is a consistent down month, though there has been one up month since 1999. The average decline has been over 300 pips. November has been equally biased to the upside in terms of the 6:1 ratio, but the average rise is only 77 pips. The really interesting month, however, is December. The market rose every year from 2000 to 2004. Even though it fell in 2005, the cross has averaged a 350+ pip increase each year.

Weekday patterns filtered by month (1999-2005)

Weekday Month Up:Down Up/Down % Avg. Pips Avg. %
Tuesday August 9:22 Down 71% -27 -0.23%
Thursday August 11:20 Down 65% -13 -0.10%
Friday August 11:20 Down 65% -12 -0.10%
Monday January 11:20 Down 62% -30 -0.26%
Tuesday May 12:18 Down 60% -22 -0.18%
Wednesday November 20:9 Up 69% 15 0.15%
Friday September 19:10 Up 65% 26 0.24%
Thursday January 19:10 Up 65% 20 0.18%
Wednesday February 18:10 Up 64% 33 0.30%
Tuesday December 18:11 Up 62% 15 0.13%
Source: Anduril Analytics

Monthly Ranges

MONTHLY
RANGE
PIPS		 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 174 134 304 431 332 244 273 348 279 309 324 348 231
Max 561 704 695 1011 1560 869 540 589 894 764 761 929 832
Ave 292 330 409 612 652 480 418 416 517 434 577 599 484
$/CHF Min 250 280 399 336 408 276 263 384 347 394 445 476 651
Max 694 1474 976 1100 1881 750 762 760 804 1147 1175 1454 1284
Ave 415 666 577 557 723 402 470 540 572 716 713 844 930
EUR/$ Min 381 432 526 402 509 267 246 333 401 277 241 265 318
Max 947 1103 1314 1285 2170 727 610 696 679 977 692 632 746
Ave 568 746 777 746 917 425 405 485 526 599 401 449 560
GBP/$ Min 348 312 397 614 446 349 392 516 456 553 239 365 323
Max 886 932 1087 1867 2604 922 1021 976 1026 1154 851 652 1006
Ave 504 634 693 1017 1045 604 642 702 745 726 491 514 597
$/CAD Min 196 225 284 378 296 229 267 307 328 350 270 274 240
Max 543 769 748 1053 2468 954 616 562 760 887 857 536 595
Ave 292 427 455 732 765 471 362 413 548 578 446 377 371
AUD/$ Min 248 256 253 322 340 189 148 209 304 264 132 180 186
Max 756 1365 1208 922 2012 988 493 347 569 527 369 471 460
Ave 450 718 616 628 736 464 301 290 431 337 220 314 329
NZD/$ Min 298 298 318 298 309 209 232 211 276 176 92 115 170
Max 984 984 760 984 1426 1073 698 503 605 412 401 420 477
Ave 570 570 467 570 609 480 356 340 408 289 230 246 283
$/ZAR Min 3417 2656 2631 4987 3403 3040 2762 2558 3657 3800 4400 1756 1575
Max 8931 15237 7470 13928 36435 69005 9949 9275 13601 11811 15113 35550 5475
Ave 5051 6259 4508 8453 10194 11726 5242 4613 6558 7483 8727 7029 3342
GOLD Min 72.0 67.5 60.5 42.0 78.6 34.1 38.2 15.45 21.25 20.75 9.25 7.2 7.8
($/oz) Max 162.9 388.6 97.4 148.1 251.1 76.3 102.0 51.9 52.9 47.5 38 34.25 37
Ave 105.9 165.1 79.4 93.6 127.6 52.0 62.1 28.1 30 29 20 16 15
SILVER Min 2.00 4.60 1.28 1.32 1.64 0.92 0.87 0.10 0.51 0.20 0.21 0.13
($/oz) Max 5.79 16.70 5.41 3.22 5.28 2.42 3.21 7.64 2.87 0.68 0.65 0.54
Ave 4.13 8.32 2.51 2.33 3.09 1.57 2.20 121.21 1.08 0.41 0.38 0.32

*30 September 2012

Weekly Ranges

WEEKLY
RANGE
PIPS		 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 41 56 103 107 110 99 100 110 82 92 100 144 111
Max 221 618 695 594 1247 697 386 548 469 433 721 519 516
Ave 130 155 206 284 332 237 217 202 231 214 266 277 227
$/CHF Min 96 122 131 131 171 91 128 142 162 152 159 180 226
Max 320 1045 498 747 1340 369 486 525 563 535 596 716 875
Ave 185 279 256 287 341 190 244 268 306 326 328 407 466
EUR/$ Min 130 158 146 179 177 92 105 113 112 124 99 118 139
Max 421 649 850 806 1360 358 386 557 548 435 334 431 585
Ave 258 360 355 345 436 196 212 241 273 257 188 230 275
GBP/$ Min 107 181 185 275 171 129 184 175 206 154 104 153 144
Max 448 455 841 1403 2249 605 543 651 710 525 501 446 840
Ave 232 309 344 495 512 295 325 316 410 295 228 265 311
$/CAD Min 67 83 125 175 122 96 98 113 135 134 88 84 99
Max 239 557 637 791 1304 452 339 401 447 510 563 320 377
Ave 149 214 240 337 357 201 187 225 259 280 198 190 184
AUD/$ Min 113 126 139 130 124 72 78 88 100 64 46 74 62
Max 375 701 792 554 1407 831 239 289 406 358 226 349 371
Ave 223 323 277 297 350 206 140 154 220 148 106 155 159
NZD/$ Min 95 133 81 112 102 82 85 93 99 70 52 39 50
Max 321 571 452 611 823 828 312 325 509 258 251 219 342
Ave 187 265 217 270 285 216 167 171 211 136 106 120 133
$/ZAR Min 1411 1140 1054 1624 1110 1400 983 932 1301 1419 1900 795 620
Max 4290 10893 6212 8155 20473 72234 6849 5495 9775 9600 13600 20300 3100
Ave 2588 3026 2293 4028 4993 6268 2635 2357 2946 3547 4098 2981 1539
GOLD Min 23.9 24.2 20.3 12.7 22.9 12.2 12.5 4.2 1.7 5.2 3.2 2.1 2.0
($/oz) Max 103.5 201.1 81.5 84.9 147.5 57.6 69.5 48.0 26.4 24.9 24.0 22.9 24
Ave 55.3 67.1 41.9 40.1 58.4 25.2 29.8 12.8 13 13 9 8 8
SILVER** Min 0.77 1.44 0.57 0.50 0.57 0.35 0.10 0.10 0.17 0.08 0.08 0.03
($/oz) Max 3.37 15.47 3.56 1.96 4.48 2.01 2.82 7.31 1.40 0.47 0.46 0.42
Ave 1.77 3.40 1.34 1.05 1.50 0.74 0.97 0.44 0.50 0.20 0.18 0.15

*30 September 2012

Daily Ranges

DAILY RANGE PIPS 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
$/JPY Min 18 19 27 34 26 22 32 29 16 27 33 54 28
Max 150 396 595 315 714 473 238 353 281 245 454 355 407
Ave 58 69 88 122 146 100 96 94 106 99 120 120 105
$/CHF Min 37 31 46 44 43 20 26 48 36 57 56 52 62
Max 208 789 259 448 523 205 270 271 328 348 377 542 528
Ave 85 118 114 135 148 85 107 123 143 152 147 185 198
EUR/$ Min 46 43 52 57 51 18 28 36 37 22 28 34 36
Max 274 391 346 512 538 244 222 247 274 263 239 298 454
Ave 115 157 148 166 182 84 95 110 124 115 87 104 117
GBP/$ Min 38 56 57 53 39 27 30 49 52 48 37 50 49
Max 257 264 457 566 1058 362 381 369 436 335 265 285 438
Ave 103 139 158 218 217 129 139 147 177 134 104 120 132
$/CAD Min 23 26 32 42 6 26 34 34 41 42 37 28 31
Max 175 310 456 387 740 255 195 271 274 305 372 208 192
Ave 70 96 111 159 143 90 88 105 122 126 93 84 81
AUD/$ Min 41 35 32 50 36 19 22 30 31 19 20 26 25
Max 240 451 378 331 735 381 155 167 293 232 199 178 327
Ave 99 137 122 141 157 90 65 72 93 67 50 67 71
NZD/$ Min 35 37 30 14 30 20 25 36 28 8 5 15 13
Max 194 401 263 285 523 366 178 187 231 157 157 137 210
Ave 85 111 96 114 122 91 76 78 90 63 49 54 60
$/ZAR Min 352 176 468 635 396 499 432 412 100 200 200 175 180
Max 3111 5690 4013 4658 16703 2653 3499 2695 4000 5200 7337 17900 2025
Ave 1175 1311 1093 1881 2209 1236 1328 1154 1445 1639 1927 1244 658
GOLD Min 0.20 0.10 3.60 0.10 5.00 1.5 2.8 1 0 0.1 0.8 0 0
($/oz) Max 103.5 116.9 49.3 68.0 105.2 39.2 42.9 15.9 17.6 19.6 11.0 16.9 19.0
Ave 23.3 26.5 18.1 17.8 23.9 10.7 12.6 5 6 6 4 3 3
SILVER Min 0.28 0.21 0.08 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
($/oz) Max 3.37 5.11 2.62 1.11 2.69 1.42 2.44 0.43 0.79 0.30 0.24 0.27
Ave 0.85 1.36 0.54 0.46 0.62 0.31 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.09 0.08 0.07

*30 September 2012